Methods

We used the SIR model, which is the following system of quadratic ordinary differential equations: For the prediction of future cases, recoveries and deaths for our study, SRI model is considered. (Weiss, H. H. (2013). “The SIR model and the Foundations of Public Health.” Materials Matemàtics, 1–17.) The SIR model is the following system of quadratic ordinary differential equations:

_{dSdt=-βSI (1)
dIdt=βSI-γI (2)
dRdt=γI (3)
where the disease transmission rate, β> 0 and the recovery rate, γ > 0, S is the susceptible population, I is the number of infected population, R is the recovered population.
By solving these equations, following equations for each time interval are deduced:
Sn=Sn-1-Sn-1Sβ.In-1 (4)
In=In-1+Sn-1Sβ.In-1-γ.In-1 (5)
Rn=Rn-1+γ.In-1 (6)
Where n is the nth time point and n-1 is the time point before n.}